We'll Be Living In Caravans, Study Warns
Sydney Morning Herald
Friday March 22, 1991
CANBERRA: More Australian households are likely to be found in caravans and boarding houses or in shared homes by the next decade, a Government report has found.
By the year 2006, young peoplewill find it even harder to buy a home and will then face a tighter rental market and higher rents.
This gloomy picture is revealed in projections in a paper issued yesterday by the National Housing Strategy (NHS).
The paper says it will become reality unless the Government drastically improves productivity through microeconomic reform to avoid a housing crisis in the next 15 years.
It says the Government's economic policies play a critical role in determining the affordability and availability of housing.
Without improved economic performance, more householders would miss out on home ownership and be priced out of rental housing.
They could then be forced into sharing dwellings against their preference or forced to live in inappropriate accommodation such as caravans and institutions.
The paper, the first of eight to be produced in the next two years by the Government-appointed group, looked at factors affecting the demand for and provision of housing.
The Minister for Community Services and Health, Mr Howe, said yesterday that with continuing microeconomic reform it should be possible to provide housing which most Australians could afford. But the paper made it clear that without continuing improvements in Australia's overall economic efficiency many Australians would be unable to afford appropriate housing.
According to the paper, the percentage of 25 to 34-year-olds with mortgages will fall.
And unless house prices remain sluggish and there is a significant turnaround in the state of the economy by the mid-1990s, the number of those in this group able to buy homes will fall significantly.
A larger proportion of younger people will have incomes below the necessary threshold for buying homes, and it is more likely they will miss out, the report says.
To achieve home ownership, some would have to rely on inherited wealth, low-start or low-deposit loans or save for longer and purchase at a later age
The rental market will also tighten, with lower vacancy rates and higher rents, unless the economy rebounds by the mid-1990s.
"It is possible that a higher proportion of households will in future consist of people who, because of reduced affordability or availability of dwellings, share dwellings against their preference or are obliged to live in inappropriate accommodation such as caravans and institutions," the report says.
The number of working women is expected to rise to 60 per cent early in the century, up from 50 per cent, while the population will age - both bringing changes in housing needs.
Although about 70 per cent of households are owner-occupied - a percentage projected to continue in 2006 - a much higher proportion will consist of one or two people over 60.
The director of the NHS, Dr Meredith Edwards, said many factors affecting housing needs into the 21st century had been identified.
Young people were likely to live with their parents longer while pursuing education or because they were unemployed or waiting to marry. The number of nuclear families might also fall to as little as 20 per cent of households.
The paper also says:
* Single detached housing makes up 80 per cent of all dwellings.
* About 70 per cent of households are in owner-occupied homes and 20 per cent are renting privately. About 6 per cent rent public housing, and 4 per cent are housed elsewhere, mainly in caravans or boarding houses.
* 60 per cent of all personal wealth in Australia is estimated to be held in the form of housing.
* Average house size has grown from 130 squares in the mid-1970s to more than 180 squares.
* Nearly 70 per cent of housing was built after World War II and more than 35 per cent since 1970.
© 1991 Sydney Morning Herald